The Imaginary Mandate
Last November's election was proof the American public wants the war to end immediately.
We've heard that line constantly in the media. The Democrats were supposedly swept into power solely to end the war in Iraq. This has been stated so many times that it has been accepted as fact.
The only problem...it's not true. There was no mandate on the Iraq war in November's shift of congressional power. Ignoring the fact that there are no "national" elections on any issue or candidate, the issue of the war had little impact on why the Democrats were able to grab a slim majority. How do we know? Simply look at the facts. For brevity's sake we'll just look at the Senate race.
#1 Republican holds - Fifteen Republican seats were up for grabs. Eight of those incumbents won re-election and Bill Frist's seat was held by the Republicans following Frist's retirement. If the war was the mandate it was claimed, those nine seats would have been affected. But the media chooses to ignore those seats and focus on six others. That leads us to number 2
#2 The Democrat gains - The most obvious point of support for the imaginary mandate would come in seats Democrats took away from Republicans. In those cases the war would have to be the deciding factor in the race. But it wasn't.
Jim Talent - (Missouri) This race was clearly defined by embryonic stem cell research. Michael J Fox's celebrity insertion into this race made it news across the nation. An accompanying state constitutional amendment on stem cell research cemented the pivotal point in the campaign. It was not a mandate on the war.
Conrad Burns - (Montana) Burns was the Republican candidate most closely associated with the Jack Abramoff fund-raisisng scandal. Burns was also the victim of several verbal gaffes. Despite the black clouds he lost to Jon Tester by only a slim margin. Again, the war was not the deciding factor.
Rick Santorum - (Pennsylvania) In a moderate Republican state like Pennsylvania it is possible to be too conservative. Santorum clearly was. He was outrageous even by conservative Republican standards. Santorum's mental state was the question in his defeat, not his stance on the war.
Lincoln Chafee - (Rhode Island) Chafee was a Republican only in the loosest sense of the term. The Label RINO (Republican in Name Only) was created for him. He supported tax increases and other liberal matters in the Democrat leaning state. A win by Chafee may have been considered a Democrat win anyway.
Mike DeWine - (Ohio) DeWine was criticized by Republicans for his vocal support of the judicial nominee compromise. He also found himself swept up in controversies surrounding Ohio's Governor Bob Taft. The war was not the overwhelming factor.
George Allen - (Virginia) This loss for George Allen can be summed up in one word; "Macaca". After being filmed using the phrase to describe a rival candidate's volunteer Allen's words were held over his head until his lead over Jim Webb slipped away. Words continued to be Webb's main attack tool as he questioned Allen's comments on his own Jewish heritage and accusations about racial epithets in college. In the end the race was decided by less that 1/2 of one percent. Hardly a clear mandate for change in Iraq.
#3 Where the war mattered - So if the war was not a factor in those Republican losses, was it a factor in any race? Absolutely, it was the sole factor in the Connecticut race. Senator Joe Lieberman was a vocal supporter of the war. His stance cost him in the Democratic primary where he lost by a narrow margin to anti-war activist Ned Lamont. Lierberman's defeat was the first media salvo in proof that the war would change the elections. Then a funny thing happened. Lieberman ran as an Independent in the general election and won convincingly by 10 percent. If Lieberman's position on the war was the Earth-shaking factor in the primary, why was it just a blip in the election that really mattered?
#4 The numbers game - Currently the Senate balance of power stands at 51-49 in favor of the Democrats. It's certainly not a commanding majority, but since this election was supposedly a referendum on the war that should be enough. However the Democrat lean includes two independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman because they both caucus with the Democrats. But we already know Lieberman is pro-war. That puts the balance on the question of war at 50-50. With Vice President Dick Cheney deciding tie votes, that puts the pro-war side in control.
So are the Democrats doing the job they were elected to do? We still remain in Iraq. Military funding bills with time lines have failed even with vote-buying schemes for Peanut storage and spinach farmers attached to gain Democrat votes. Looking at how important the war was in actually deciding the November election that looks about right.
We've heard that line constantly in the media. The Democrats were supposedly swept into power solely to end the war in Iraq. This has been stated so many times that it has been accepted as fact.
The only problem...it's not true. There was no mandate on the Iraq war in November's shift of congressional power. Ignoring the fact that there are no "national" elections on any issue or candidate, the issue of the war had little impact on why the Democrats were able to grab a slim majority. How do we know? Simply look at the facts. For brevity's sake we'll just look at the Senate race.
#1 Republican holds - Fifteen Republican seats were up for grabs. Eight of those incumbents won re-election and Bill Frist's seat was held by the Republicans following Frist's retirement. If the war was the mandate it was claimed, those nine seats would have been affected. But the media chooses to ignore those seats and focus on six others. That leads us to number 2
#2 The Democrat gains - The most obvious point of support for the imaginary mandate would come in seats Democrats took away from Republicans. In those cases the war would have to be the deciding factor in the race. But it wasn't.
Jim Talent - (Missouri) This race was clearly defined by embryonic stem cell research. Michael J Fox's celebrity insertion into this race made it news across the nation. An accompanying state constitutional amendment on stem cell research cemented the pivotal point in the campaign. It was not a mandate on the war.
Conrad Burns - (Montana) Burns was the Republican candidate most closely associated with the Jack Abramoff fund-raisisng scandal. Burns was also the victim of several verbal gaffes. Despite the black clouds he lost to Jon Tester by only a slim margin. Again, the war was not the deciding factor.
Rick Santorum - (Pennsylvania) In a moderate Republican state like Pennsylvania it is possible to be too conservative. Santorum clearly was. He was outrageous even by conservative Republican standards. Santorum's mental state was the question in his defeat, not his stance on the war.
Lincoln Chafee - (Rhode Island) Chafee was a Republican only in the loosest sense of the term. The Label RINO (Republican in Name Only) was created for him. He supported tax increases and other liberal matters in the Democrat leaning state. A win by Chafee may have been considered a Democrat win anyway.
Mike DeWine - (Ohio) DeWine was criticized by Republicans for his vocal support of the judicial nominee compromise. He also found himself swept up in controversies surrounding Ohio's Governor Bob Taft. The war was not the overwhelming factor.
George Allen - (Virginia) This loss for George Allen can be summed up in one word; "Macaca". After being filmed using the phrase to describe a rival candidate's volunteer Allen's words were held over his head until his lead over Jim Webb slipped away. Words continued to be Webb's main attack tool as he questioned Allen's comments on his own Jewish heritage and accusations about racial epithets in college. In the end the race was decided by less that 1/2 of one percent. Hardly a clear mandate for change in Iraq.
#3 Where the war mattered - So if the war was not a factor in those Republican losses, was it a factor in any race? Absolutely, it was the sole factor in the Connecticut race. Senator Joe Lieberman was a vocal supporter of the war. His stance cost him in the Democratic primary where he lost by a narrow margin to anti-war activist Ned Lamont. Lierberman's defeat was the first media salvo in proof that the war would change the elections. Then a funny thing happened. Lieberman ran as an Independent in the general election and won convincingly by 10 percent. If Lieberman's position on the war was the Earth-shaking factor in the primary, why was it just a blip in the election that really mattered?
#4 The numbers game - Currently the Senate balance of power stands at 51-49 in favor of the Democrats. It's certainly not a commanding majority, but since this election was supposedly a referendum on the war that should be enough. However the Democrat lean includes two independents, Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Joe Lieberman because they both caucus with the Democrats. But we already know Lieberman is pro-war. That puts the balance on the question of war at 50-50. With Vice President Dick Cheney deciding tie votes, that puts the pro-war side in control.
So are the Democrats doing the job they were elected to do? We still remain in Iraq. Military funding bills with time lines have failed even with vote-buying schemes for Peanut storage and spinach farmers attached to gain Democrat votes. Looking at how important the war was in actually deciding the November election that looks about right.
Labels: Jim Talent (Missouri)
